Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 11.0 in
- RP forecast
- 10.9 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 11.0 in | 10.9 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.1 in | 15.1 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 90.9 mph | 91.4 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 11.5 in | 11.7 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 20.1 in | 20.3 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 101 | 102 | 103 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 117 | 118 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 105 | 105 | — |
| Zone rate | 44.8% | 47.9% | 47.6% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 31.8% | 29.1% | 29.7% | — |
| Whiff rate | 17.0% | 20.7% | 22.4% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.4% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.7% | 38.1% | 40.1% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 45.3% | 39.5% | 37.1% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 1.5 pp | 1.5 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 16.9% | 19.9% | 22.0% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 32.1% | 32.7% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 52.8% | 52.9% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 26.7% | 27.2% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 14.0% | 13.1% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.4% | 1.8% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 25.4% | 26.7% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 21.8% | 21.0% | — |