Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 3.3 in
- RP forecast
- 3.2 in
Loading projection…
Final projection unavailable. The results-only forecast remains available below.
Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 3.3 in | 3.2 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 18.2 in | 18.2 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.2 mph | 95.8 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 11.0 in | 11.1 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.3 in | 17.5 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 109 | 104 | 105 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 103 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 111 | 112 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 38.4% | 46.1% | 45.8% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.8% | 29.3% | 29.9% | — |
| Whiff rate | 35.0% | 30.7% | 32.4% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 13.3% | 9.2% | 7.7% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 26.7% | 31.1% | 33.1% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 26.7% | 36.3% | 33.9% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.2 pp | -0.2 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 17.4% | 10.7% | 11.0% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 17.4% | 22.0% | 24.1% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 44.0% | 44.5% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 53.5% | 53.5% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 37.6% | 38.2% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 3.8% | 2.9% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.2% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 26.4% | 27.6% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.3% | 15.6% | — |