Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 9.2 in
- RP forecast
- 9.2 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.2 in | 9.2 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.5 in | 15.6 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.6 mph | 95.2 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.9 in | 17.1 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 7.0 in | 7.2 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 108 | 102 | 104 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 110 | 111 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 104 | 104 | — |
| Zone rate | 51.0% | 50.2% | 50.0% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.4% | 27.8% | 28.4% | — |
| Whiff rate | 22.9% | 22.3% | 24.1% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.4% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.2% | 35.9% | 37.9% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 44.2% | 40.0% | 37.6% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.6 pp | 0.6 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 6.3% | 8.9% | 9.2% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 24.0% | 22.6% | 24.7% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 46.7% | 47.2% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 50.6% | 50.6% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 35.7% | 36.3% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.9% | 2.0% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.4% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 26.3% | 27.5% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.6% | 16.8% | — |