Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.2 in
- RP · chosen
- 16.1 in
Loading projection…
| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.53 | 1.42 | 21.2% | 10.5% | 47.5% |
| RP · chosen | 4.07 | 1.38 | 23.3% | 10.8% | 49.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.2 in | 16.1 in | 16.1 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 4.8 in | 4.8 in | 4.8 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.7 mph | 97.3 mph | 97.3 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 14.8 in | 14.9 in | 14.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 4.6 in | 4.7 in | 4.7 in |
| Stuff+ | 105 | 102 | 103 | 103 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 105 | 107 | 107 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 96 | 96 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | 106 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 95 | 95 | 95 |
| Zone rate | 45.4% | 46.8% | 46.5% | 46.5% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.2% | 28.0% | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| Whiff rate | 26.6% | 24.6% | 26.4% | 26.4% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 47.4% | 47.5% | 49.5% | 49.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 42.2% | 42.4% | 39.9% | 39.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 11.5% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 10.8% |
| Strikeout rate | 22.9% | 21.2% | 23.3% | 23.3% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 41.5% | 42.0% | 42.0% |
| All fastball usage | — | 55.7% | 55.7% | 55.7% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 50.6% | 51.2% | 51.2% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| First secondary usage | — | 22.7% | 23.9% | 23.9% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 12.3% | 11.6% | 11.6% |