Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 11.9 in
- RP forecast
- 11.8 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 11.9 in | 11.8 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 9.3 in | 9.4 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 89.8 mph | 90.4 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.8 in | 15.9 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 7.8 in | 8.0 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 99 | 99 | 100 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 94 | 96 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 105 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 108 | 108 | — |
| Zone rate | 50.7% | 49.4% | 49.1% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.8% | 29.2% | 29.8% | — |
| Whiff rate | 23.4% | 22.3% | 24.1% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 10.0% | 8.6% | 7.1% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 36.7% | 40.3% | 42.3% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 33.3% | 37.7% | 35.3% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 3.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 20.3% | 18.9% | 21.0% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 56.7% | 57.3% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 29.8% | 29.9% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 16.7% | 17.3% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 9.1% | 8.2% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 3.0% | 3.4% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 38.4% | 39.6% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 21.9% | 21.2% | — |