Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 11.1 in
- RP forecast
- 11.0 in
Loading projection…
Final projection unavailable. The results-only forecast remains available below.
Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 11.1 in | 11.0 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 13.3 in | 13.3 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.8 mph | 93.3 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.2 in | 16.4 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.3 in | 17.5 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 95 | 97 | 98 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 95 | 97 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 94 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 104 | 104 | — |
| Zone rate | 46.9% | 48.4% | 48.2% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.2% | 27.5% | 28.1% | — |
| Whiff rate | 20.7% | 21.7% | 23.4% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.5% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.3% | 39.1% | 41.1% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 45.2% | 41.8% | 39.3% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 17.5% | 18.5% | 20.5% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 30.6% | 31.1% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 49.8% | 49.8% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 31.3% | 31.9% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 20.4% | 19.5% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.4% | 0.8% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 18.7% | 20.0% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 14.8% | 14.1% | — |