Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 5.9 in
- RP forecast
- 5.9 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 5.9 in | 5.9 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 10.3 in | 10.4 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 88.1 mph | 88.7 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 18.1 in | 18.2 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.5 in | 13.6 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 101 | 95 | 96 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 92 | 93 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 88 | 89 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 102 | 102 | — |
| Zone rate | 53.7% | 50.4% | 50.2% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.2% | 28.3% | 28.9% | — |
| Whiff rate | 16.8% | 17.0% | 18.8% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.0% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 32.7% | 40.2% | 42.2% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.5% | 34.9% | 32.5% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.0% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 18.9% | 15.9% | 18.0% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 58.4% | 58.9% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 39.3% | 39.4% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 24.6% | 25.2% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.4% | 1.5% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 54.7% | 56.0% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 10.7% | 10.0% | — |