Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 6.3 in
- RP forecast
- 6.2 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.3 in | 6.2 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.7 in | 16.7 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.2 mph | 95.8 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 3.8 in | 3.9 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.8 in | 17.9 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 99 | 99 | 101 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 96 | 98 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 110 | 110 | — |
| Zone rate | 46.3% | 48.2% | 48.0% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 33.5% | 29.9% | 30.5% | — |
| Whiff rate | 26.8% | 25.0% | 26.7% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.2% | 7.6% | 6.1% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 62.3% | 49.5% | 51.5% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 35.1% | 40.7% | 38.2% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.8% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 23.3% | 21.6% | 23.7% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 28.2% | 28.7% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 59.8% | 59.8% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 40.9% | 41.4% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 12.4% | 11.5% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.2% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 25.2% | 26.4% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.3% | 15.5% | — |