Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 13.9 in
- RP · chosen
- 13.8 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.74 | 1.39 | 19.0% | 9.0% | 39.6% |
| RP · chosen | 4.28 | 1.35 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 41.6% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 13.9 in | 13.8 in | 13.8 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 13.1 in | 13.1 in | 13.1 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.0 mph | 93.5 mph | 93.5 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 17.6 in | 17.7 in | 17.7 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 7.1 in | 7.3 in | 7.3 in |
| Stuff+ | 98 | 96 | 98 | 98 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 97 | 99 | 99 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | 95 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | 97 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| Zone rate | 45.2% | 46.8% | 46.5% | 46.5% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 25.7% | 29.5% | 30.1% | 30.1% |
| Whiff rate | 25.3% | 23.8% | 25.5% | 25.5% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 39.3% | 39.6% | 41.6% | 41.6% |
| Hard-hit rate | 41.0% | 39.9% | 37.5% | 37.5% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.4% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.3% |
| Strikeout rate | 18.5% | 19.0% | 21.1% | 21.1% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 11.5% | 12.1% | 12.1% |
| All fastball usage | — | 61.1% | 61.1% | 61.1% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 38.5% | 39.0% | 39.0% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 27.5% | 26.6% | 26.6% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| First secondary usage | — | 24.4% | 25.6% | 25.6% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 20.2% | 19.4% | 19.4% |