Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 9.6 in
- RP forecast
- 9.6 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.6 in | 9.6 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.3 in | 14.3 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.5 mph | 96.0 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 13.2 in | 13.4 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 14.7 in | 14.8 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 99 | 100 | 102 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 92 | 93 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 106 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 100 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 101 | 101 | — |
| Zone rate | 48.8% | 49.1% | 48.9% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.7% | 29.6% | 30.2% | — |
| Whiff rate | 23.0% | 24.4% | 26.2% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 49.6% | 46.0% | 48.0% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 33.3% | 40.7% | 38.3% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.7% | 8.4% | 8.7% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 18.8% | 19.6% | 21.7% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 10.1% | 10.6% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 47.4% | 47.5% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 22.7% | 23.3% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 43.9% | 43.0% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.7% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 39.8% | 41.0% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 21.8% | 21.0% | — |