Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 13.9 in
- RP · chosen
- 13.8 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 3.73 | 1.27 | 26.3% | 9.1% | 53.5% |
| RP · chosen | 3.27 | 1.23 | 28.4% | 9.4% | 55.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 13.9 in | 13.8 in | 13.8 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 8.1 in | 8.2 in | 8.2 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.8 mph | 97.3 mph | 97.3 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 18.2 in | 18.4 in | 18.4 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 11.2 in | 11.3 in | 11.3 in |
| Stuff+ | 110 | 104 | 105 | 105 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | 105 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 109 | 109 | 109 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | 106 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 89 | 89 | 89 |
| Zone rate | 43.4% | 47.0% | 46.8% | 46.8% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.5% | 29.1% | 29.7% | 29.7% |
| Whiff rate | 32.1% | 28.2% | 29.9% | 29.9% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| Ground-ball rate | 56.2% | 53.5% | 55.5% | 55.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 40.2% | 41.3% | 38.9% | 38.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.7% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.4% |
| Strikeout rate | 30.3% | 26.3% | 28.4% | 28.4% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 33.8% | 34.4% | 34.4% |
| All fastball usage | — | 53.2% | 53.2% | 53.2% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 46.8% | 47.3% | 47.3% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 13.6% | 12.7% | 12.7% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| First secondary usage | — | 20.8% | 22.0% | 22.0% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 13.5% | 12.7% | 12.7% |