Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 6.5 in
- RP forecast
- 6.4 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 3.85 | 1.24 | 24.4% | 7.6% | 48.2% |
| RP | 3.39 | 1.20 | 26.5% | 7.8% | 50.2% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.5 in | 6.4 in | 6.5 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.8 in | 14.8 in | 14.8 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.5 mph | 97.1 mph | 96.5 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 12.7 in | 12.8 in | 12.7 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.8 in | 15.9 in | 15.8 in |
| Stuff+ | 102 | 101 | 102 | 101 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 99 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | 105 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 105 | 105 | 105 |
| Zone rate | 48.8% | 49.0% | 48.8% | 49.0% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.1% | 31.0% | 31.6% | 31.0% |
| Whiff rate | 27.4% | 26.9% | 28.6% | 26.9% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.7% |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.7% | 48.2% | 50.2% | 48.2% |
| Hard-hit rate | 40.5% | 40.2% | 37.8% | 40.2% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% |
| Strikeout rate | 28.4% | 24.4% | 26.5% | 24.4% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 38.3% | 38.8% | 38.3% |
| All fastball usage | — | 52.0% | 52.0% | 52.0% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 31.5% | 32.1% | 31.5% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.3% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 24.9% | 26.2% | 24.9% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 14.7% | 14.0% | 14.7% |