Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 8.4 in
- RP · chosen
- 8.4 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.03 | 1.27 | 24.3% | 8.3% | 41.8% |
| RP · chosen | 3.57 | 1.23 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 43.8% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.4 in | 8.4 in | 8.4 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.1 in | 16.1 in | 16.1 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.1 mph | 96.7 mph | 96.7 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 4.2 in | 4.3 in | 4.3 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 18.8 in | 18.9 in | 18.9 in |
| Stuff+ | 99 | 100 | 101 | 101 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 97 | 99 | 99 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | 103 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | 103 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 101 | 101 | 101 |
| Zone rate | 49.5% | 49.7% | 49.4% | 49.4% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.6% | 29.2% | 29.8% | 29.8% |
| Whiff rate | 27.3% | 27.4% | 29.1% | 29.1% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.7% | 41.8% | 43.8% | 43.8% |
| Hard-hit rate | 43.0% | 43.4% | 41.0% | 41.0% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.3 pp | -0.3 pp | -0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| Strikeout rate | 24.5% | 24.3% | 26.4% | 26.4% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 37.2% | 37.7% | 37.7% |
| All fastball usage | — | 56.5% | 56.6% | 56.6% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 36.2% | 36.8% | 36.8% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| First secondary usage | — | 33.6% | 34.8% | 34.8% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 18.5% | 17.7% | 17.7% |