Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 8.9 in
- RP forecast
- 8.8 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 3.98 | 1.25 | 24.9% | 8.2% | 43.8% |
| RP | 3.52 | 1.22 | 27.0% | 8.5% | 45.8% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.9 in | 8.8 in | 8.9 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.9 in | 17.0 in | 16.9 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.0 mph | 95.6 mph | 95.0 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 10.7 in | 10.9 in | 10.7 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 2.4 in | 2.6 in | 2.4 in |
| Stuff+ | 104 | 103 | 104 | 103 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 99 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 107 | 108 | 107 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | 106 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Zone rate | 47.2% | 48.4% | 48.2% | 48.4% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 31.7% | 29.6% | 30.2% | 29.6% |
| Whiff rate | 28.6% | 27.9% | 29.6% | 27.9% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 8.0% |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.3% | 43.8% | 45.8% | 43.8% |
| Hard-hit rate | 42.0% | 41.3% | 38.9% | 41.3% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% |
| Strikeout rate | 26.1% | 24.9% | 27.0% | 24.9% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 51.7% | 52.3% | 51.7% |
| All fastball usage | — | 36.4% | 36.4% | 36.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 24.3% | 24.9% | 24.3% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 12.1% | 11.2% | 12.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 24.0% | 25.2% | 24.0% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 25.2% | 24.4% | 25.2% |