Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 8.3 in
- RP forecast
- 8.2 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.3 in | 8.2 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.9 in | 15.9 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.9 mph | 96.5 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 7.1 in | 7.3 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.8 in | 18.0 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 112 | 105 | 107 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 108 | 108 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 104 | 104 | — |
| Zone rate | 45.6% | 48.1% | 47.8% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.1% | 30.6% | 31.2% | — |
| Whiff rate | 24.0% | 28.0% | 29.8% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 10.5% | 8.4% | 6.9% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.2% | 41.1% | 43.2% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 45.3% | 40.7% | 38.3% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.5% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 26.8% | 28.5% | 30.6% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 17.0% | 17.5% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 76.7% | 76.7% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 33.1% | 33.7% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 5.9% | 5.0% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 24.5% | 25.7% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 20.4% | 19.7% | — |