Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.2 in
- RP · chosen
- 16.1 in
Loading projection…
| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.39 | 1.35 | 18.3% | 7.7% | 50.5% |
| RP · chosen | 3.93 | 1.31 | 20.4% | 8.0% | 52.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.2 in | 16.1 in | 16.1 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 1.4 in | 1.5 in | 1.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 89.4 mph | 89.9 mph | 89.9 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 17.8 in | 17.9 in | 17.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 11.3 in | 11.4 in | 11.4 in |
| Stuff+ | 106 | 104 | 105 | 105 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | 107 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | 106 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 98 | 98 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 98 | 98 | 98 |
| Zone rate | 47.5% | 48.4% | 48.2% | 48.2% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.6% | 30.4% | 31.0% | 31.0% |
| Whiff rate | 17.5% | 19.8% | 21.6% | 21.6% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% |
| Ground-ball rate | 51.8% | 50.5% | 52.5% | 52.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 34.8% | 38.3% | 35.8% | 35.8% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.0 pp | -0.0 pp | -0.0 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| Strikeout rate | 15.3% | 18.3% | 20.4% | 20.4% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 38.5% | 39.1% | 39.1% |
| All fastball usage | — | 52.2% | 52.3% | 52.3% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 40.2% | 40.7% | 40.7% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 36.6% | 37.8% | 37.8% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 10.7% | 9.9% | 9.9% |