Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 9.4 in
- RP forecast
- 9.3 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 3.86 | 1.22 | 24.8% | 7.5% | 45.5% |
| RP | 3.40 | 1.19 | 26.8% | 7.8% | 47.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.4 in | 9.3 in | 9.4 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.4 in | 15.5 in | 15.4 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 97.0 mph | 97.5 mph | 97.0 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 12.4 in | 12.6 in | 12.4 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 5.3 in | 5.4 in | 5.3 in |
| Stuff+ | 101 | 101 | 103 | 101 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 101 | 99 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | 104 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 101 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 109 | 109 | 109 |
| Zone rate | 51.6% | 50.2% | 49.9% | 50.2% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 37.0% | 31.4% | 32.0% | 31.4% |
| Whiff rate | 25.6% | 26.2% | 27.9% | 26.2% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.5% | 45.5% | 47.5% | 45.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 41.6% | 40.3% | 37.9% | 40.3% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% |
| Strikeout rate | 25.9% | 24.8% | 26.8% | 24.8% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 46.2% | 46.7% | 46.2% |
| All fastball usage | — | 48.0% | 48.1% | 48.0% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 29.4% | 30.0% | 29.4% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| First secondary usage | — | 24.2% | 25.5% | 24.2% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 21.5% | 20.8% | 21.5% |