Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 9.4 in
- RP forecast
- 9.3 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.4 in | 9.3 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 13.6 in | 13.6 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.1 mph | 96.7 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 2.8 in | 3.0 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.3 in | 13.4 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 102 | 99 | 100 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 100 | 102 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | — |
| Zone rate | 48.1% | 49.3% | 49.0% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.9% | 27.3% | 27.9% | — |
| Whiff rate | 29.3% | 25.6% | 27.3% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 39.5% | 43.0% | 45.0% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 36.8% | 40.9% | 38.5% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.7% | 9.7% | 10.0% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 22.1% | 20.2% | 22.3% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 26.1% | 26.6% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 51.8% | 51.8% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 26.3% | 26.9% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 22.2% | 21.3% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.7% | 1.1% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 22.6% | 23.8% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 21.0% | 20.2% | — |