Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 16.0 in
- RP forecast
- 15.9 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.36 | 1.35 | 20.4% | 8.5% | 47.2% |
| RP | 3.90 | 1.31 | 22.5% | 8.7% | 49.2% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.0 in | 15.9 in | 16.0 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 7.5 in | 7.5 in | 7.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.2 mph | 94.8 mph | 94.2 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 4.5 in | 4.6 in | 4.5 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.9 in | 16.1 in | 15.9 in |
| Stuff+ | 91 | 96 | 97 | 96 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | 100 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 97 | 97 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 89 | 90 | 89 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Zone rate | 45.7% | 47.7% | 47.5% | 47.7% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 31.3% | 29.9% | 30.5% | 29.9% |
| Whiff rate | 26.2% | 24.6% | 26.3% | 24.6% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% |
| Ground-ball rate | 42.8% | 47.2% | 49.2% | 47.2% |
| Hard-hit rate | 40.0% | 42.1% | 39.6% | 42.1% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.5% |
| Strikeout rate | 21.4% | 20.4% | 22.5% | 20.4% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 35.2% | 35.7% | 35.2% |
| All fastball usage | — | 58.6% | 58.6% | 58.6% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 25.9% | 26.4% | 25.9% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| First secondary usage | — | 31.5% | 32.7% | 31.5% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.5% | 15.7% | 16.5% |