Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 13.3 in
- RP forecast
- 13.2 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 13.3 in | 13.2 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 11.0 in | 11.0 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.9 mph | 96.4 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 11.4 in | 11.5 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 2.0 in | 2.1 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 97 | 98 | 99 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 89 | 91 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 103 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 102 | 102 | — |
| Zone rate | 46.7% | 48.6% | 48.4% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 31.0% | 27.4% | 28.0% | — |
| Whiff rate | 31.4% | 23.1% | 24.8% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.4% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.7% | 42.3% | 44.3% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 46.1% | 46.2% | 43.8% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 13.8% | 12.0% | 12.2% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 22.8% | 18.6% | 20.7% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 41.0% | 41.6% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 47.1% | 47.1% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 24.9% | 25.5% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 12.0% | 11.1% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.5% | 0.8% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 22.1% | 23.3% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 18.7% | 17.9% | — |