Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 9.3 in
- RP forecast
- 9.2 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.3 in | 9.2 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.4 in | 14.4 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 98.4 mph | 99.0 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 5.6 in | 5.8 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 12.9 in | 13.1 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 104 | 102 | 104 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 103 | 105 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 94 | 94 | — |
| Zone rate | 44.0% | 47.7% | 47.5% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.0% | 27.7% | 28.3% | — |
| Whiff rate | 21.0% | 24.9% | 26.6% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.4% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.4% | 44.4% | 46.4% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 39.4% | 42.5% | 40.1% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.8 pp | 0.8 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.1% | 9.7% | 10.0% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 16.3% | 20.5% | 22.6% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 27.2% | 27.7% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 58.5% | 58.5% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 52.0% | 52.6% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 13.0% | 12.1% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.0% | 1.4% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 23.4% | 24.6% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 12.6% | 11.8% | — |