Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 9.9 in
- RP · chosen
- 9.9 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.28 | 1.30 | 23.2% | 8.7% | 40.5% |
| RP · chosen | 3.82 | 1.26 | 25.3% | 9.0% | 42.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.9 in | 9.9 in | 9.9 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.5 in | 14.6 in | 14.6 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.4 mph | 95.9 mph | 95.9 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 11.8 in | 11.9 in | 11.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 12.9 in | 13.0 in | 13.0 in |
| Stuff+ | 100 | 100 | 101 | 101 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | 104 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Zone rate | 45.7% | 47.4% | 47.1% | 47.1% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 34.3% | 30.5% | 31.1% | 31.1% |
| Whiff rate | 27.3% | 26.8% | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.4% | 40.5% | 42.5% | 42.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 36.7% | 38.8% | 36.4% | 36.4% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.4% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.0% |
| Strikeout rate | 25.9% | 23.2% | 25.3% | 25.3% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 30.9% | 31.5% | 31.5% |
| All fastball usage | — | 50.6% | 50.6% | 50.6% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 28.5% | 29.1% | 29.1% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 17.8% | 16.9% | 16.9% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| First secondary usage | — | 26.2% | 27.4% | 27.4% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.9% | 17.1% | 17.1% |