Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.3 in
- RP · chosen
- 16.2 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.42 | 1.37 | 18.9% | 8.1% | 50.9% |
| RP · chosen | 3.96 | 1.33 | 21.0% | 8.4% | 52.9% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.3 in | 16.2 in | 16.2 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 5.7 in | 5.8 in | 5.8 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.0 mph | 95.5 mph | 95.5 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.8 in | 16.9 in | 16.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 3.1 in | 3.3 in | 3.3 in |
| Stuff+ | 94 | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 103 | 103 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 91 | 91 | 91 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 99 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 104 | 104 | 104 |
| Zone rate | 47.2% | 47.6% | 47.3% | 47.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.5% | 29.6% | 30.2% | 30.2% |
| Whiff rate | 24.8% | 23.2% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Ground-ball rate | 53.5% | 50.9% | 52.9% | 52.9% |
| Hard-hit rate | 40.2% | 41.4% | 39.0% | 39.0% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% |
| Strikeout rate | 18.3% | 18.9% | 21.0% | 21.0% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 19.6% | 20.2% | 20.2% |
| All fastball usage | — | 60.3% | 60.4% | 60.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 34.4% | 35.0% | 35.0% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 20.4% | 19.4% | 19.4% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| First secondary usage | — | 17.8% | 19.1% | 19.1% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.6% | 14.9% | 14.9% |