Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 12.4 in
- RP forecast
- 12.3 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 12.4 in | 12.3 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 6.3 in | 6.4 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.1 mph | 96.7 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 12.9 in | 13.0 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 4.4 in | 4.5 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 95 | 98 | 99 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 101 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 94 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 51.8% | 49.8% | 49.5% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 21.0% | 26.4% | 27.0% | — |
| Whiff rate | 14.1% | 19.4% | 21.2% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 2.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 57.1% | 50.5% | 52.5% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 34.3% | 40.6% | 38.2% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 4.4% | 8.1% | 8.3% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 15.6% | 17.8% | 19.9% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 16.7% | 17.2% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 58.9% | 58.9% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 48.9% | 49.4% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 26.8% | 25.9% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 24.9% | 26.1% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 12.9% | 12.1% | — |