Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 9.9 in
- RP · chosen
- 9.8 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.68 | 1.40 | 19.9% | 9.7% | 40.7% |
| RP · chosen | 4.22 | 1.36 | 22.0% | 10.0% | 42.7% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.9 in | 9.8 in | 9.8 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 13.5 in | 13.5 in | 13.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.1 mph | 93.7 mph | 93.7 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 14.6 in | 14.7 in | 14.7 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.5 in | 16.6 in | 16.6 in |
| Stuff+ | 92 | 96 | 97 | 97 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | 95 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 99 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 96 | 96 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Zone rate | 47.7% | 48.0% | 47.8% | 47.8% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.5% | 26.7% | 27.3% | 27.3% |
| Whiff rate | 26.3% | 24.0% | 25.8% | 25.8% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Ground-ball rate | 39.5% | 40.7% | 42.7% | 42.7% |
| Hard-hit rate | 39.0% | 40.1% | 37.7% | 37.7% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.0% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Strikeout rate | 22.2% | 19.9% | 22.0% | 22.0% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 45.8% | 46.3% | 46.3% |
| All fastball usage | — | 44.4% | 44.4% | 44.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 23.1% | 23.7% | 23.7% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 10.8% | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| First secondary usage | — | 31.7% | 32.9% | 32.9% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.4% | 16.6% | 16.6% |