Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 9.5 in
- RP forecast
- 9.4 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.5 in | 9.4 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 17.6 in | 17.6 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.2 mph | 92.8 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 14.5 in | 14.7 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 7.5 in | 7.7 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 102 | 99 | 101 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 97 | 97 | — |
| Zone rate | 48.0% | 48.6% | 48.4% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.2% | 27.6% | 28.2% | — |
| Whiff rate | 21.8% | 21.7% | 23.5% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.4% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.8% | 35.7% | 37.7% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 29.2% | 36.9% | 34.5% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.3 pp | -0.3 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 11.1% | 10.2% | 10.5% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 19.1% | 18.5% | 20.5% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 22.9% | 23.4% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 30.0% | 30.0% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 24.8% | 25.4% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 48.3% | 47.4% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.8% | 1.2% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 44.4% | 45.6% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.7% | 15.0% | — |