Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 11.5 in
- RP forecast
- 11.4 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.41 | 1.33 | 21.5% | 8.6% | 41.2% |
| RP | 3.95 | 1.29 | 23.6% | 8.8% | 43.2% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 11.5 in | 11.4 in | 11.5 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.3 in | 15.3 in | 15.3 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.9 mph | 96.5 mph | 95.9 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 11.3 in | 11.5 in | 11.3 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 5.8 in | 5.9 in | 5.8 in |
| Stuff+ | 99 | 99 | 101 | 99 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 103 | 101 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 98 | 98 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 98 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 105 | 105 | 105 |
| Zone rate | 50.0% | 49.3% | 49.1% | 49.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.9% | 29.1% | 29.7% | 29.1% |
| Whiff rate | 23.9% | 25.1% | 26.8% | 25.1% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 8.1% |
| Ground-ball rate | 39.8% | 41.2% | 43.2% | 41.2% |
| Hard-hit rate | 44.7% | 41.1% | 38.6% | 41.1% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.9% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% |
| Strikeout rate | 19.1% | 21.5% | 23.6% | 21.5% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 25.3% | 25.8% | 25.3% |
| All fastball usage | — | 51.3% | 51.3% | 51.3% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 45.3% | 45.9% | 45.3% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 24.2% | 23.3% | 24.2% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| First secondary usage | — | 24.1% | 25.3% | 24.1% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 12.9% | 12.1% | 12.9% |