Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 5.9 in
- RP · chosen
- 5.9 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.91 | 1.42 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 37.2% |
| RP · chosen | 4.45 | 1.38 | 19.8% | 9.5% | 39.2% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 5.9 in | 5.9 in | 5.9 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 18.3 in | 18.4 in | 18.4 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.6 mph | 93.2 mph | 93.2 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 13.1 in | 13.2 in | 13.2 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 7.6 in | 7.7 in | 7.7 in |
| Stuff+ | 90 | 96 | 97 | 97 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 93 | 95 | 95 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | 96 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 101 | 101 | 101 |
| Zone rate | 47.9% | 48.6% | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 22.2% | 26.5% | 27.1% | 27.1% |
| Whiff rate | 18.5% | 21.4% | 23.1% | 23.1% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Ground-ball rate | 38.8% | 37.2% | 39.2% | 39.2% |
| Hard-hit rate | 44.2% | 40.8% | 38.3% | 38.3% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.2% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| Strikeout rate | 13.2% | 17.8% | 19.8% | 19.8% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 34.3% | 34.8% | 34.8% |
| All fastball usage | — | 43.7% | 43.7% | 43.7% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 38.4% | 39.0% | 39.0% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 23.5% | 22.6% | 22.6% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| First secondary usage | — | 19.1% | 20.3% | 20.3% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 21.7% | 20.9% | 20.9% |