Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 11.2 in
- RP forecast
- 11.1 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 3.94 | 1.25 | 25.4% | 8.5% | 44.2% |
| RP | 3.48 | 1.21 | 27.4% | 8.7% | 46.2% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 11.2 in | 11.1 in | 11.2 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 12.7 in | 12.7 in | 12.7 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.5 mph | 95.1 mph | 94.5 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 12.4 in | 12.6 in | 12.4 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.9 in | 14.0 in | 13.9 in |
| Stuff+ | 101 | 102 | 104 | 102 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 98 | 100 | 98 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 109 | 110 | 109 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | 104 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Zone rate | 45.0% | 47.5% | 47.3% | 47.5% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.2% | 29.6% | 30.2% | 29.6% |
| Whiff rate | 23.6% | 26.5% | 28.2% | 26.5% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.9% |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.0% | 44.2% | 46.2% | 44.2% |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.8% | 37.7% | 35.3% | 37.7% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.5% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.5% |
| Strikeout rate | 21.2% | 25.4% | 27.4% | 25.4% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 44.6% | 45.1% | 44.6% |
| All fastball usage | — | 53.4% | 53.4% | 53.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 34.5% | 35.1% | 34.5% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.0% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 25.2% | 26.5% | 25.2% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 20.2% | 19.4% | 20.2% |