Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 8.0 in
- RP · chosen
- 7.9 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.04 | 1.28 | 25.9% | 9.4% | 42.7% |
| RP · chosen | 3.58 | 1.24 | 28.0% | 9.6% | 44.7% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.0 in | 7.9 in | 7.9 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 18.0 in | 18.0 in | 18.0 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.2 mph | 96.7 mph | 96.7 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 2.7 in | 2.8 in | 2.8 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.1 in | 13.3 in | 13.3 in |
| Stuff+ | 110 | 103 | 104 | 104 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | 107 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | 101 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 100 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Zone rate | 45.2% | 46.7% | 46.5% | 46.5% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 35.1% | 31.1% | 31.7% | 31.7% |
| Whiff rate | 31.2% | 29.8% | 31.5% | 31.5% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.7% | 42.7% | 44.7% | 44.7% |
| Hard-hit rate | 36.5% | 39.1% | 36.7% | 36.7% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 6.5% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.6% |
| Strikeout rate | 31.7% | 25.9% | 28.0% | 28.0% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 30.2% | 30.8% | 30.8% |
| All fastball usage | — | 57.6% | 57.6% | 57.6% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 42.9% | 43.4% | 43.4% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 13.5% | 12.6% | 12.6% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 19.5% | 20.8% | 20.8% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 13.7% | 12.9% | 12.9% |