Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 6.0 in
- RP · chosen
- 6.0 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.54 | 1.44 | 19.7% | 10.3% | 50.1% |
| RP · chosen | 4.09 | 1.40 | 21.8% | 10.6% | 52.1% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.0 in | 6.0 in | 6.0 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 13.5 in | 13.5 in | 13.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 98.0 mph | 98.5 mph | 98.5 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 3.3 in | 3.4 in | 3.4 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 14.8 in | 15.0 in | 15.0 in |
| Stuff+ | 105 | 102 | 103 | 103 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 100 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | 106 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | 96 |
| Zone rate | 46.0% | 47.3% | 47.1% | 47.1% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 26.4% | 26.8% | 27.4% | 27.4% |
| Whiff rate | 25.2% | 24.9% | 26.6% | 26.6% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.3% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| Ground-ball rate | 56.5% | 50.1% | 52.1% | 52.1% |
| Hard-hit rate | 39.8% | 44.1% | 41.6% | 41.6% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.4% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 10.6% |
| Strikeout rate | 16.5% | 19.7% | 21.8% | 21.8% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 30.5% | 31.1% | 31.1% |
| All fastball usage | — | 52.6% | 52.6% | 52.6% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 42.6% | 43.1% | 43.1% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 17.1% | 16.2% | 16.2% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| First secondary usage | — | 23.8% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.6% | 15.8% | 15.8% |