Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 8.6 in
- RP forecast
- 8.5 in
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Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.6 in | 8.5 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.3 in | 15.4 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.4 mph | 94.9 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 12.1 in | 12.2 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 0.8 in | 0.9 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 102 | 99 | 100 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 96 | 98 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 102 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 101 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 44.1% | 45.7% | 45.4% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 31.6% | 28.6% | 29.2% | — |
| Whiff rate | 22.2% | 23.8% | 25.5% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 16.7% | 9.9% | 8.4% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 33.3% | 37.9% | 39.9% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 50.0% | 42.4% | 40.0% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.9 pp | -0.9 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 14.3% | 10.4% | 10.7% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 0.0% | 12.5% | 14.6% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 10.3% | 10.9% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 49.9% | 49.9% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 44.4% | 44.9% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 42.2% | 41.3% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.2% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 37.5% | 38.8% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 9.3% | 8.5% | — |
2026 MLB arsenal evidence unavailable