Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 9.5 in
- RP forecast
- 9.4 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.00 | 1.24 | 25.1% | 8.4% | 38.3% |
| RP | 3.54 | 1.20 | 27.2% | 8.7% | 40.3% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.5 in | 9.4 in | 9.5 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.2 in | 15.2 in | 15.2 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.2 mph | 95.8 mph | 95.2 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.8 in | 16.9 in | 16.8 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 8.2 in | 8.4 in | 8.2 in |
| Stuff+ | 108 | 103 | 104 | 103 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 104 | 106 | 104 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | 104 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 101 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 104 | 104 | 104 |
| Zone rate | 49.3% | 49.1% | 48.9% | 49.1% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.7% | 29.0% | 29.6% | 29.0% |
| Whiff rate | 27.0% | 26.3% | 28.0% | 26.3% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% |
| Ground-ball rate | 32.7% | 38.3% | 40.3% | 38.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 34.5% | 37.8% | 35.3% | 37.8% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.9% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.4% |
| Strikeout rate | 28.4% | 25.1% | 27.2% | 25.1% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 29.8% | 30.3% | 29.8% |
| All fastball usage | — | 63.4% | 63.4% | 63.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 43.6% | 44.2% | 43.6% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 22.4% | 23.7% | 22.4% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.8% | 17.0% | 17.8% |