Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.8 in
- RP forecast
- 7.7 in
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Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.8 in | 7.7 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.4 in | 15.4 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.3 mph | 94.9 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 12.1 in | 12.2 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 3.5 in | 3.6 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 91 | 97 | 98 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 92 | 94 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 101 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 99 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 34.9% | 43.4% | 43.2% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 21.4% | 26.3% | 26.9% | — |
| Whiff rate | 22.2% | 22.4% | 24.2% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 12.5% | 9.1% | 7.5% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.0% | 43.1% | 45.2% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 25.0% | 37.9% | 35.4% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.7 pp | -0.7 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 18.2% | 10.8% | 11.1% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 9.1% | 15.4% | 17.5% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 23.8% | 24.4% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 42.3% | 42.3% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 33.8% | 34.4% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 36.6% | 35.7% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 34.3% | 35.5% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 20.3% | 19.5% | — |
2026 MLB arsenal evidence unavailable