Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 6.5 in
- RP forecast
- 6.4 in
Loading projection…
Final projection unavailable. The results-only forecast remains available below.
Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.5 in | 6.4 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 17.5 in | 17.5 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.0 mph | 92.6 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 8.8 in | 9.0 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.0 in | 16.2 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 108 | 103 | 104 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 103 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | — |
| Zone rate | 55.1% | 51.0% | 50.8% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.5% | 28.8% | 29.4% | — |
| Whiff rate | 26.6% | 25.6% | 27.4% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 30.6% | 36.2% | 38.2% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 34.7% | 37.2% | 34.8% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.2 pp | -0.2 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 5.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 32.9% | 25.9% | 28.0% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 21.9% | 22.4% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 67.7% | 67.7% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 62.5% | 63.1% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 10.2% | 9.3% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 13.7% | 14.9% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 11.2% | 10.4% | — |