Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.7 in
- RP forecast
- 7.6 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.7 in | 7.6 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.9 in | 15.9 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.3 mph | 95.8 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 12.1 in | 12.2 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.2 in | 15.3 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 101 | 100 | 101 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 100 | 100 | — |
| Zone rate | 44.4% | 47.4% | 47.2% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.4% | 28.4% | 29.0% | — |
| Whiff rate | 26.0% | 26.6% | 28.4% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 0.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.4% | 42.2% | 44.2% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 33.3% | 39.6% | 37.2% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.6 pp | 0.6 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 18.4% | 11.2% | 11.4% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 22.4% | 23.0% | 25.1% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 34.0% | 34.5% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 47.4% | 47.4% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 31.5% | 32.1% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 19.5% | 18.6% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 21.1% | 22.3% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 19.3% | 18.5% | — |