Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 8.8 in
- RP forecast
- 8.7 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.72 | 1.40 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 40.1% |
| RP | 4.26 | 1.36 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 42.1% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.8 in | 8.7 in | 8.8 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.6 in | 16.7 in | 16.6 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.9 mph | 95.5 mph | 94.9 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.0 in | 16.2 in | 16.0 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 8.4 in | 8.6 in | 8.4 in |
| Stuff+ | 93 | 97 | 98 | 97 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 97 | 99 | 97 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 97 | 97 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | 96 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 102 | 102 | 102 |
| Zone rate | 46.9% | 48.3% | 48.1% | 48.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.3% | 28.8% | 29.4% | 28.8% |
| Whiff rate | 21.5% | 22.6% | 24.3% | 22.6% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.9% |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.9% | 40.1% | 42.1% | 40.1% |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.8% | 40.8% | 38.4% | 40.8% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.5% |
| Strikeout rate | 17.7% | 19.5% | 21.6% | 19.5% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 30.5% | 31.1% | 30.5% |
| All fastball usage | — | 43.9% | 43.9% | 43.9% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 28.5% | 29.1% | 28.5% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 26.4% | 25.4% | 26.4% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 24.7% | 25.9% | 24.7% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.5% | 15.7% | 16.5% |