Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 6.2 in
- RP forecast
- 6.1 in
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Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.2 in | 6.1 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 8.6 in | 8.7 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.1 mph | 95.7 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 10.5 in | 10.6 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.8 in | 15.9 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 111 | 105 | 106 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 108 | 109 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 123 | 124 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 63.2% | 53.3% | 53.0% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.6% | 26.0% | 26.6% | — |
| Whiff rate | 30.0% | 26.4% | 28.1% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 25.0% | 11.6% | 10.0% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 75.0% | 60.5% | 62.5% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 50.0% | 40.6% | 38.2% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 2.7 pp | 2.7 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 0.0% | 12.0% | 12.3% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 20.0% | 22.1% | 24.2% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 26.2% | 26.8% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 72.6% | 72.6% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 64.9% | 65.5% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.3% | 1.4% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 22.6% | 23.8% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 7.8% | 7.0% | — |
2026 MLB arsenal evidence unavailable