Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 12.5 in
- RP forecast
- 12.4 in
Loading projection…
Final projection unavailable. The results-only forecast remains available below.
Saved source inputs unavailable
Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 12.5 in | 12.4 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 8.3 in | 8.3 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.8 mph | 93.4 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 13.1 in | 13.2 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 19.4 in | 19.6 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 103 | 101 | 102 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 101 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 98 | 98 | — |
| Zone rate | 46.9% | 48.4% | 48.1% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 25.1% | 28.5% | 29.1% | — |
| Whiff rate | 23.2% | 21.7% | 23.4% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 3.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 47.4% | 40.4% | 42.4% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 44.7% | 40.5% | 38.0% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 16.2% | 17.4% | 19.5% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 41.8% | 42.4% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 57.0% | 57.0% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 14.5% | 15.1% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.3% | 1.4% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.4% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 38.4% | 39.7% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 36.9% | 36.1% | — |