Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.3 in
- RP forecast
- 16.2 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.3 in | 16.2 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | -3.5 in | -3.4 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 89.9 mph | 90.4 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 14.9 in | 15.0 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 6.6 in | 6.8 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 93 | 96 | 97 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 96 | 98 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 95 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 102 | 102 | — |
| Zone rate | 45.4% | 46.9% | 46.7% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 34.8% | 30.4% | 31.0% | — |
| Whiff rate | 20.7% | 17.4% | 19.1% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 58.9% | 54.6% | 56.6% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 37.9% | 40.2% | 37.7% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 18.0% | 14.1% | 16.2% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 18.7% | 19.2% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 54.2% | 54.2% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 25.6% | 26.2% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 26.9% | 26.0% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.3% | 1.7% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 23.4% | 24.7% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 21.8% | 21.0% | — |