Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 9.7 in
- RP forecast
- 9.6 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.7 in | 9.6 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 19.0 in | 19.0 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.3 mph | 93.8 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 11.8 in | 12.0 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 5.2 in | 5.3 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 107 | 103 | 104 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 94 | 94 | — |
| Zone rate | 46.1% | 48.8% | 48.6% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.5% | 27.8% | 28.4% | — |
| Whiff rate | 30.8% | 29.5% | 31.2% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.3% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 20.2% | 26.5% | 28.5% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 34.0% | 38.5% | 36.0% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.1 pp | -0.1 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 15.3% | 11.1% | 11.3% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 37.4% | 30.5% | 32.6% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 34.4% | 35.0% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 62.4% | 62.4% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 58.2% | 58.8% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.3% | 1.4% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.6% | 0.9% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 18.0% | 19.2% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.7% | 15.9% | — |