Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 4.7 in
- RP · chosen
- 4.6 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.18 | 1.26 | 26.4% | 9.8% | 29.8% |
| RP · chosen | 3.72 | 1.22 | 28.5% | 10.1% | 31.8% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.7 in | 4.6 in | 4.6 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 20.9 in | 21.0 in | 21.0 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.6 mph | 92.1 mph | 92.1 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 6.6 in | 6.7 in | 6.7 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 18.0 in | 18.1 in | 18.1 in |
| Stuff+ | 102 | 100 | 101 | 101 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 101 | 101 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | 104 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 102 | 102 | 102 |
| Zone rate | 45.5% | 47.7% | 47.5% | 47.5% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 31.9% | 29.1% | 29.7% | 29.7% |
| Whiff rate | 33.6% | 28.7% | 30.5% | 30.5% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Ground-ball rate | 29.8% | 29.8% | 31.8% | 31.8% |
| Hard-hit rate | 33.6% | 37.6% | 35.2% | 35.2% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.0 pp | -0.0 pp | -0.0 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 13.5% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.1% |
| Strikeout rate | 31.2% | 26.4% | 28.5% | 28.5% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 30.9% | 31.4% | 31.4% |
| All fastball usage | — | 54.7% | 54.7% | 54.7% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 50.2% | 50.8% | 50.8% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 14.2% | 13.3% | 13.3% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 28.5% | 29.7% | 29.7% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 14.2% | 13.4% | 13.4% |