Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 11.6 in
- RP · chosen
- 11.6 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.54 | 1.35 | 20.5% | 8.8% | 39.8% |
| RP · chosen | 4.08 | 1.31 | 22.6% | 9.1% | 41.8% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 11.6 in | 11.6 in | 11.6 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 12.0 in | 12.1 in | 12.1 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.7 mph | 93.3 mph | 93.3 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 12.2 in | 12.4 in | 12.4 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.1 in | 17.2 in | 17.2 in |
| Stuff+ | 97 | 98 | 99 | 99 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 100 | 102 | 102 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | 96 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 106 | 106 | 106 |
| Zone rate | 46.8% | 48.6% | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.1% | 27.8% | 28.4% | 28.4% |
| Whiff rate | 25.4% | 24.4% | 26.2% | 26.2% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Ground-ball rate | 39.0% | 39.8% | 41.8% | 41.8% |
| Hard-hit rate | 37.1% | 40.1% | 37.7% | 37.7% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Strikeout rate | 22.5% | 20.5% | 22.6% | 22.6% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 36.3% | 36.8% | 36.8% |
| All fastball usage | — | 57.2% | 57.2% | 57.2% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 31.2% | 31.7% | 31.7% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| First secondary usage | — | 30.4% | 31.6% | 31.6% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 23.1% | 22.3% | 22.3% |