Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 15.0 in
- RP · chosen
- 14.9 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.66 | 1.42 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 45.0% |
| RP · chosen | 4.20 | 1.38 | 22.1% | 10.3% | 47.1% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.0 in | 14.9 in | 14.9 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 5.9 in | 6.0 in | 6.0 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.9 mph | 93.5 mph | 93.5 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 11.7 in | 11.8 in | 11.8 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 2.7 in | 2.9 in | 2.9 in |
| Stuff+ | 97 | 99 | 100 | 100 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 103 | 105 | 105 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 96 | 96 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | 101 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| Zone rate | 43.7% | 46.5% | 46.3% | 46.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.1% | 29.2% | 29.8% | 29.8% |
| Whiff rate | 30.7% | 26.0% | 27.8% | 27.8% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.4% | 45.0% | 47.1% | 47.1% |
| Hard-hit rate | 37.3% | 40.8% | 38.4% | 38.4% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.0 pp | 0.0 pp | 0.0 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 11.7% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.3% |
| Strikeout rate | 22.5% | 20.0% | 22.1% | 22.1% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 53.1% | 53.6% | 53.6% |
| All fastball usage | — | 44.2% | 44.2% | 44.2% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 20.6% | 21.2% | 21.2% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| First secondary usage | — | 28.3% | 29.5% | 29.5% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 24.2% | 23.4% | 23.4% |