Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 8.5 in
- RP forecast
- 8.5 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.78 | 1.40 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 38.9% |
| RP | 4.32 | 1.36 | 21.2% | 9.7% | 40.9% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.5 in | 8.5 in | 8.5 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.6 in | 16.6 in | 16.6 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.7 mph | 93.3 mph | 92.7 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 9.9 in | 10.0 in | 9.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.3 in | 17.5 in | 17.3 in |
| Stuff+ | 99 | 99 | 100 | 99 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 93 | 95 | 93 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | 102 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 98 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 94 | 94 | 94 |
| Zone rate | 46.0% | 47.7% | 47.5% | 47.7% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 24.4% | 26.1% | 26.7% | 26.1% |
| Whiff rate | 23.5% | 23.5% | 25.3% | 23.5% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.2% |
| Ground-ball rate | 39.8% | 38.9% | 40.9% | 38.9% |
| Hard-hit rate | 41.0% | 39.6% | 37.2% | 39.6% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 13.0% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.4% |
| Strikeout rate | 15.6% | 19.1% | 21.2% | 19.1% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 21.0% | 21.6% | 21.0% |
| All fastball usage | — | 58.6% | 58.6% | 58.6% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 19.6% | 20.2% | 19.6% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 20.0% | 19.1% | 20.0% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| First secondary usage | — | 30.6% | 31.8% | 30.6% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 19.8% | 19.0% | 19.8% |