Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 4.9 in
- RP · chosen
- 4.8 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 3.41 | 1.20 | 32.4% | 10.0% | 46.7% |
| RP · chosen | 2.95 | 1.16 | 34.5% | 10.3% | 48.7% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.9 in | 4.8 in | 4.8 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 18.1 in | 18.2 in | 18.2 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 97.8 mph | 98.4 mph | 98.4 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 17.6 in | 17.7 in | 17.7 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 7.3 in | 7.4 in | 7.4 in |
| Stuff+ | 115 | 107 | 108 | 108 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 109 | 111 | 111 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | 107 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | 104 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 93 | 93 | 93 |
| Zone rate | 48.5% | 48.9% | 48.7% | 48.7% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.6% | 30.5% | 31.1% | 31.1% |
| Whiff rate | 32.5% | 32.8% | 34.6% | 34.6% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% |
| Ground-ball rate | 53.4% | 46.7% | 48.7% | 48.7% |
| Hard-hit rate | 42.5% | 42.8% | 40.4% | 40.4% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.3% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 10.3% |
| Strikeout rate | 37.8% | 32.4% | 34.5% | 34.5% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 29.4% | 29.9% | 29.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 67.3% | 67.3% | 67.3% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 45.4% | 45.9% | 45.9% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| First secondary usage | — | 17.8% | 19.1% | 19.1% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 13.4% | 12.6% | 12.6% |