Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 8.7 in
- RP forecast
- 8.6 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.7 in | 8.6 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 13.7 in | 13.7 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.6 mph | 95.1 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 7.6 in | 7.8 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 7.7 in | 7.8 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 90 | 97 | 99 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 93 | 95 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 31.9% | 42.0% | 41.7% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.6% | 27.6% | 28.2% | — |
| Whiff rate | 43.5% | 31.5% | 33.3% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 15.4% | 9.6% | 8.1% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 23.1% | 31.1% | 33.1% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 76.9% | 51.0% | 48.6% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 1.6 pp | 1.6 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 24.0% | 13.4% | 13.6% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 24.0% | 20.9% | 23.0% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 37.1% | 37.6% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 56.0% | 56.0% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 22.2% | 22.7% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 6.4% | 5.5% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.5% | 0.9% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 33.0% | 34.2% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 18.4% | 17.6% | — |