Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 6.8 in
- RP forecast
- 6.7 in
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Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.8 in | 6.7 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 11.6 in | 11.7 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.0 mph | 95.6 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 7.9 in | 8.1 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 14.7 in | 14.8 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 85 | 93 | 94 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 92 | 93 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 92 | 93 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 34.3% | 43.2% | 43.0% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 34.8% | 29.3% | 29.9% | — |
| Whiff rate | 31.6% | 25.1% | 26.8% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 0.0% | 6.5% | 5.0% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 55.6% | 47.8% | 49.8% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 44.4% | 43.0% | 40.5% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | — * | — * | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 0.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 16.7% | 16.5% | 18.6% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 35.6% | 36.1% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 56.4% | 56.4% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 27.9% | 28.5% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 7.9% | 7.0% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 29.5% | 30.7% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 23.9% | 23.1% | — |
2026 MLB arsenal evidence unavailable