Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 14.6 in
- RP forecast
- 14.5 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 14.6 in | 14.5 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 5.6 in | 5.7 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 97.2 mph | 97.8 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 12.7 in | 12.9 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | — * | — * | — |
| Stuff+ | 107 | 103 | 104 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 103 | 105 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 90 | 90 | — |
| Zone rate | 49.5% | 48.6% | 48.4% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 23.3% | 26.6% | 27.2% | — |
| Whiff rate | 31.0% | 27.0% | 28.8% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 48.9% | 48.6% | 50.6% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 45.5% | 43.0% | 40.6% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 13.3% | 11.0% | 11.3% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 30.3% | 24.3% | 26.4% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 34.1% | 34.7% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 62.8% | 62.8% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 52.9% | 53.5% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.6% | 1.7% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.4% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 29.8% | 31.0% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | — * | — * | — |