Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.5 in
- RP forecast
- 7.4 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.5 in | 7.4 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.5 in | 16.6 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 98.0 mph | 98.6 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 5.6 in | 5.8 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 18.3 in | 18.5 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 111 | 104 | 105 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 107 | 108 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 94 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | — |
| Zone rate | 47.3% | 48.1% | 47.8% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.6% | 29.5% | 30.1% | — |
| Whiff rate | 36.8% | 31.0% | 32.7% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 12.1% | 8.9% | 7.4% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 36.4% | 39.8% | 41.8% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 36.4% | 39.8% | 37.3% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.8% | 9.5% | 9.8% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 38.5% | 29.2% | 31.3% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 36.5% | 37.0% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 59.7% | 59.7% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 53.6% | 54.2% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 3.2% | 2.2% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 25.8% | 27.0% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 11.5% | 10.7% | — |